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Underlying fundamentals remain supportive, despite recent market volatility.
Recent volatility may take more time to play out as the market adjusts to higher yields, protectionist rhetoric, and continued political turmoil. However, we believe fundamentals will eventually prevail and move U.S. equities higher over the next 12 to 18 months.
Despite seasonal setbacks, growth and earnings remain solid, and non-U.S. equities remain modestly ahead of U.S. stocks.
We agree with the consensus view that investors should overweight non-U.S. equities in a globally balanced portfolio. Improving corporate fundamentals and attractive valuations are increasingly potential tailwinds, particularly for small-cap stocks.
A nimble approach may be warranted to pursue income opportunities outside of low-yielding government sectors.
Our fixed-income view stems from the bearish outlook of a number of managers in our network; some have reduced duration. We believe investment-grade corporates and emerging-market debt still offer upside.
Earnings have rebounded in developed and emerging markets, increasingly driven by bottom-up fundamentals as central banks step back.
Despite seasonal setbacks and protectionist worries, economic growth continues across G7 countries and many emerging markets, while inflation remains largely below central bank targets.
The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to withdraw liquidity at a measured pace, while non-U.S. central bankers appear to be moving beyond peak accommodation.
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